Key findings
- Japan shows the sharpest paradox: opposition to accepting foreign workers rose from 46% to nearly 60% in a year (Yomiuri, December 2025), yet Japan is targeting 820,000 foreign Specified Skilled Workers by 2029, with care among the top sectors.
- Majorities across Europe say immigration over the past decade has been too high: Germany 81% (61% say much too high), Spain 80%, the UK 70%, Denmark lowest at 55% (YouGov EuroTrack).
- But almost nobody wants to remove the workers economies depend on: in the UK just 8% would deport doctors and nurses, and across YouGov polling the share of the public who would deport migrant healthcare workers tops out around 8-12%.
- The WHO projects a shortage of about 4.5 million nurses by 2030, and up to 12.9 million health workers by 2035, driven by aging populations.
- When forced to choose, publics in every country polled prefer improving the economy even if immigration rises over cutting immigration even if the economy worsens (for example Spain 58% vs 16%, YouGov).
- Germany already relies on foreign workers it polls against: 17.8% of its nursing workforce was foreign-born in 2024 (306,700 nurses), while it faces a 350,000 to 500,000 care-worker shortfall by 2035.
- The US foreign-born share reached 14.8% in 2024 (MPI), the highest since 1890 (Brookings), even as home health and personal care aide jobs are projected to grow 17% from 2024 to 2034 (BLS), versus 3% on average.
Immigration is one of the most polarized issues in the developed world, but the debate is usually framed as a single up-or-down question. This WorkVisa Guide report reframes it with data. It pairs what publics say about immigration with what their own economies officially need, and finds a consistent paradox: the same countries that want less immigration are running record campaigns to recruit the exact workers, above all nurses and care workers, that they least want to remove. The figures below are drawn from named third-party sources; our own contribution, the Sentiment vs Need Scorecard and the Paradox Gap rating, is labeled as WorkVisa Guide analysis throughout.
What the public says
Across the developed world, public opinion has hardened against immigration. In YouGov's EuroTrack survey of seven countries (Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Sweden), majorities said immigration over the past ten years has been too high. Germany led at 81%, with 61% saying it had been much too high, followed by Spain at 80% and the United Kingdom at 70%. Denmark was the lowest at 55%, still a majority.
The unease is cultural as well as numerical. In the same YouGov work, Italians were the most likely to agree that there are so many foreigners it does not feel like home any more, at roughly 52%. In Japan, the shift has been the fastest anywhere: a Yomiuri Shimbun mail survey in December 2025 found nearly 60% opposed to accepting foreign workers, up sharply from 46% a year earlier.
In the United States, the backdrop is a foreign-born population share of 14.8% in 2024 according to the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), which Brookings notes is the highest level since 1890. Researchers describe this as a political tipping point that depends heavily on the perceived numbers rather than on economic outcomes.
The paradox: the workers nobody wants to lose
The same surveys that record hostility to immigration in the abstract reveal something very different when respondents are asked about specific workers. When YouGov asked supporters of mass deportation who they would actually deport, the share willing to remove migrants working as doctors and nurses was only 15 to 24%. Scaled to the whole population, that is roughly 8 to 12%, which is a useful rough ceiling for hardcore anti-migrant sentiment (WorkVisa Guide analysis of the YouGov figures).
The UK national figures are even starker. Asked who should be removed, 16% would remove asylum seekers who are following the legal process, 11% would remove workers filling skills shortages, and just 8% would remove doctors and nurses (YouGov). In other words, more than nine in ten Britons would keep migrant healthcare workers.
Trade-off questions tell the same story. When YouGov forced a choice, publics consistently prioritised preserving healthcare staffing over cutting immigration. Filling skills shortages and attracting the best and brightest also beat cutting numbers, while more taxpayers was the weakest pro-immigration argument tested. And in every country polled, improve the economy even if immigration increases beat reduce immigration even if the economy worsens, for example by 58% to 16% in Spain.
What economies actually need
On the other side of the ledger is a structural, demographic shortage that does not move with the political cycle. The World Health Organization projects a shortfall of about 4.5 million nurses by 2030; Project HOPE puts the broader health-worker gap at roughly 11 million by 2030, and the WHO has cited figures as high as 12.9 million health workers by 2035.
The driver is aging. The global population aged 60 and over is set to rise from 1 billion in 2020 to 1.4 billion by 2030, and the number of people aged 80 and over is tripling toward 426 million by 2050. In the European Union, the share of people over 65 is projected to reach 30% by 2050, up from 21% in 2022. In the United States, roughly 10,000 people turn 65 every day, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects home health and personal care aide employment to grow 17% from 2024 to 2034, far above the 3% average for all occupations.
Governments are responding with recruitment targets aimed at the very workers their voters say they want fewer of. Germany faces a care-worker shortfall of 350,000 to 500,000 by 2035, with around 150,000 care posts already unfilled and a further 120,000 to 180,000 IT roles open. Japan is targeting 820,000 foreign Specified Skilled Workers by 2029. South Korea, where 21.2% of the population is over 65, faces an elder-care shortfall of about 116,000 by 2028. Italy has reopened an extra-quota caregiver channel for the over-80s. In the Gulf, Colliers estimates Abu Dhabi will be short about 15,000 nurses by 2030, and Dubai short 6,000 physicians and 11,000 nurses.
The Sentiment vs Need Scorecard
The Scorecard below is WorkVisa Guide analysis. For each country it pairs the anti-immigration sentiment signal with the labor-need signal, then assigns a plain-language Paradox Gap rating (High, Severe, or Extreme). The sentiment and shortage figures are third-party and attributed in the methodology box; the Paradox Gap rating is ours. The rule is defined in the methodology section, and the Scorecard may be reproduced with attribution to this report.
| Country | Immigration too high | Would deport doctors / care workers | Headline labor shortage | Active recruitment | Paradox Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 46% to 60% opposed (Yomiuri, 2025) | ~8-12% (YouGov ceiling) | Care a top shortage sector | 820,000 SSW target by 2029 | Extreme |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 81% (61% much too high) | ~8-12% (YouGov ceiling) | 350K-500K care shortfall by 2035 | 17.8% of nurses already foreign | Severe |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | ~52% it does not feel like home | ~8-12% (YouGov ceiling) | Caregivers for the over-80s | Reopened extra-quota carer channel | Severe |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 21.2% over 65 (aging fast) | ~8-12% (YouGov ceiling) | ~116,000 elder-care gap by 2028 | Caregiver visa expansion | Severe |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 70% too high | 8% (national, YouGov) | Care sector shortages | Closed overseas care recruiting Jul 2025 | High |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 80% too high | ~8-12% (YouGov ceiling) | Care and services | Economy beats cuts 58% to 16% | High |
| 🇫🇷 France | Majority too high | ~8-12% (YouGov ceiling) | Healthcare and care | Ongoing skilled recruitment | High |
| 🇺🇸 US (context) | Foreign-born 14.8%, 1890-high | Low (YouGov) | Home aides +17% 2024-34 (BLS) | No national target | High |
Country spotlights
Japan is the sharpest paradox in the data. It is the country where anti-foreigner sentiment rose fastest, from 46% to nearly 60% opposed in a single year (Yomiuri, December 2025), and it is simultaneously running one of the largest formal recruitment drives in the world, a target of 820,000 foreign Specified Skilled Workers by 2029, with nursing care a priority sector.
Germany shows what dependence already looks like. Even as 81% say immigration has been too high, 17.8% of the nursing workforce was foreign-born in 2024 (306,700 nurses), and the country faces a 350,000 to 500,000 care-worker shortfall by 2035. The workers are not hypothetical; they are already holding up the system.
The United Kingdom closed its overseas care-worker recruitment route in July 2025, yet only 8% of Britons say they would deport migrant doctors and nurses. The politics and the staffing reality point in opposite directions at the same time.
The United States sits at a foreign-born share of 14.8%, the highest since 1890, while the fastest-growing occupation group is home health and personal care aides, projected to grow 17% from 2024 to 2034. The numbers that drive the political anxiety and the numbers that drive the labor demand are rising together.
Why the paradox exists
Part of the answer is a perception gap. YouGov has found that large shares of the public, between roughly 44% and 60% depending on the country, wrongly believe that illegal immigration is larger than legal immigration, when in most of these countries the reverse is true. When people picture immigration, they often picture the illegal, salient version rather than the legal, work-based flows that actually fill hospital rotas.
A second reason is that demographics move in only one direction. Birth rates have fallen below replacement across the developed world, populations are aging, and the working-age base that funds and staffs care is shrinking. That structural demand does not respond to elections, which is why analysts at Brookings and the ODI describe a widening gap between the politics of immigration, which is highly salient and negative, and the structural need for labor, which is quiet but relentless.
What it means for 2026 and beyond
If both forces persist, and the demographic one almost certainly will, the most likely outcome is not a binary of open or closed borders but a sorting. Expect more shortage-occupation carve-outs that protect healthcare and care recruitment even where overall numbers are cut, more bilateral and government-to-government recruitment agreements that channel workers into specific roles, and more political language that pairs toughness on illegal immigration with quiet expansion of legal, work-based routes.
For workers in sending countries, the practical takeaway is that healthcare, care and other shortage occupations remain the most durable routes, because they are the ones publics least want to cut. For policymakers, the data suggests the debate would be better served by separating the cultural question from the labor question rather than collapsing them into a single number.
For the underlying pathways and shortage data, see our guides to countries facing worker shortages, caregiver visas worldwide, the Global Skills Migration Map, Germany care worker visa, Japan SSW visa, and the H-1B fee ruling.
Methodology and sources
What we did. WorkVisa Guide compiled publicly reported polling on immigration sentiment and official labor-shortage and recruitment data, then paired them country by country to build the Sentiment vs Need Scorecard. All sentiment and shortage figures are third-party; our contribution is the pairing and the Paradox Gap rating.
Paradox Gap rule. A qualitative rating (High, Severe, Extreme) reflecting the distance between national anti-immigration sentiment and the scale of official demand for, and active recruitment of, the same worker categories the public least wants to remove. Extreme is reserved for cases where sentiment is rising fastest while a very large formal recruitment target is in force (Japan). It is a plain-language indicator, not a precise numeric index.
Sources. Sentiment: YouGov EuroTrack (Britain, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden), 2025; Yomiuri Shimbun mail survey, December 2025; Migration Policy Institute (foreign-born share, 2024); Brookings (1890 comparison). Labor need: World Health Organization (4.5 million nurse and up to 12.9 million health-worker projections); Project HOPE (11 million by 2030); US Bureau of Labor Statistics (home health and personal care aide projections, 2024-2034); German federal care and IT vacancy estimates; Japan Specified Skilled Worker target; South Korea elder-care projection; Colliers (Gulf nursing and physician gaps). Figures are best-available as of 2026; several are set by annual decree or survey cycle and may be revised.
Limitations. Polling wording and dates differ between countries, so cross-country sentiment comparisons are indicative rather than exact. Where a country lacks a directly comparable deport-the-doctors figure, we apply the YouGov cross-country ceiling of roughly 8 to 12% of the public and say so.
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Cite this report
Citation: WorkVisa Guide, The Immigration Paradox 2026, workvisa.guide/reports/immigration-paradox-2026
For data requests or interviews, contact us via our contact page. The Sentiment vs Need Scorecard may be reproduced with attribution and a link to this report.
Frequently asked questions
Do people actually want to deport doctors and nurses?
No. In the UK, just 8% say they would remove migrant doctors and nurses (YouGov), and across YouGov's polling the share of the public willing to deport migrant healthcare workers tops out at roughly 8 to 12%. Even among supporters of mass deportation, only 15 to 24% would remove doctors and nurses. Opposition to immigration in the abstract does not translate into wanting to remove the specific workers who staff hospitals and care homes.
Which country has the sharpest immigration paradox?
Japan. Opposition to accepting foreign workers rose from 46% to nearly 60% in a single year (Yomiuri, December 2025), the fastest swing in the data, yet Japan is simultaneously targeting 820,000 foreign Specified Skilled Workers by 2029, with nursing care a priority sector. The sentiment and the recruitment effort are moving in opposite directions at the same time.
How big is the global nurse shortage?
The World Health Organization projects a shortfall of about 4.5 million nurses by 2030. The broader health-worker gap is estimated at roughly 11 million by 2030 (Project HOPE) and as high as 12.9 million by 2035 (WHO). The shortage is driven by aging populations: the global over-60 population is rising from 1 billion in 2020 to 1.4 billion by 2030.
Do voters prioritise the economy or cutting immigration?
When forced to choose, the economy. In every country YouGov polled, the statement improve the economy even if immigration increases beat reduce immigration even if the economy worsens, for example by 58% to 16% in Spain. Preserving healthcare staffing also consistently beat cutting immigration in trade-off questions.
Is this about legal or illegal immigration?
The polling on trade-offs and on specific workers concerns legal, work-based immigration where the source specifies it. Part of why the paradox exists is a perception gap: YouGov has found that between roughly 44% and 60% of people wrongly believe illegal immigration is larger than legal immigration, when the reverse is usually true. The paradox depends on keeping legal and illegal flows distinct.
How does WorkVisa Guide calculate the Paradox Gap?
The Paradox Gap is a WorkVisa Guide qualitative indicator (High, Severe, or Extreme). It pairs the strength of a country's anti-immigration sentiment with the scale of its official labor shortage and its active recruitment of the same categories of worker the public least wants to remove. It is a plain-language signal of the distance between what publics say and what economies need, not a precise numeric index. The underlying figures are all third-party and attributed in the methodology box.
Which workers are the safest immigration route given this paradox?
Healthcare and care occupations, followed by other official shortage occupations. These are the roles publics least want to cut and that governments are actively recruiting for, from Germany's care routes to Japan's Specified Skilled Worker program. Our companion guides on countries facing worker shortages and caregiver visas cover the specific pathways.
Can I cite or reproduce the Sentiment vs Need Scorecard?
Yes. The Scorecard is WorkVisa Guide analysis and may be reproduced with attribution to WorkVisa Guide, The Immigration Paradox 2026, with a link to workvisa.guide/reports/immigration-paradox-2026. The third-party figures it draws on (YouGov, WHO, BLS, MPI, Yomiuri, Brookings, Colliers) should be credited to their original sources, which are listed in the methodology box. For data requests or interviews, use our contact page.