August 2026 Visa Bulletin - Predictions and What to Expect

Where things stand - latest data recap

The June 2026 bulletin was the worst single-month retrogression for Indian professionals in years: EB-2 India fell 10.5 months to September 1, 2013, EB-1 India fell 3.5 months to December 15, 2022, and EB-3 India advanced 1 month to December 15, 2013 - putting EB-3 ahead of EB-2 for the first time in recent memory. Chart A remains the only chart for employment-based filings.

June baseline (Final Action Dates):

For the complete June 2026 analysis with every table, see our June 2026 Visa Bulletin or the plain English breakdown. For the next month's outlook: July 2026 predictions.

August predictions - employment-based

• EB-1: Likely frozen or minimal advance (0-1 month)
• EB-2 India: POSSIBLE small advance (2-4 weeks) - State Dept may release numbers before fiscal year end
• EB-2 China: Small advance likely (1-3 months)
• EB-3 India: Possible small advance (2-4 weeks)
• EB-3 ROW: May advance toward Current
• EB-5 India Unreserved: HIGH RISK - may retrogress 6-18 months or become UNAVAILABLE (U) for remainder of FY2026
• EB-5 China: Modest advance (+2-4 weeks)
• EB-5 Set-asides: Remain Current (protected allocation)

EB-5 retrogression - what happens if it triggers

• If EB-5 India goes to 'U' (Unavailable): no new I-485 filings for EB-5 India until October 2026
• If it retrogresses (date moves backward): only applicants with priority dates before the new cutoff can file
• Set-aside categories (Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure) are PROTECTED and remain Current regardless
• Strategy: if you have an EB-5 petition with a current date, file I-485 TODAY
• Consider switching investment to set-aside eligible project for no-backlog path

Use the Green Card Priority Date Calculator to model your wait under different scenarios.

The FY2026 endgame - why August-September matter

• FY2026 ends September 30, 2026
• Unused visa numbers expire and do NOT carry over to FY2027
• State Dept historically pushes dates forward in Aug-Sep to use remaining numbers
• BUT: 75-country freeze already created surplus, reducing urgency to advance
• OBBBA fees effective May 29 are causing some applicants to delay filing
• Net effect: unpredictable - could see advances OR retrogression

August and September are the most volatile months in any fiscal year. Monitor weekly. See our September 2026 Visa Bulletin predictions for the FY2026 final-month outlook.

OBBBA fee impact on filing behavior

• New fees from One Big Beautiful Bill Act took effect May 29, 2026
• I-485 fee increased to $1,440+
• Annual asylum fee $100/year (new)
• I-94 fee $40 per entry (new)
• Some applicants may delay filing - reducing demand and potentially advancing dates
• Others rushing to file before further increases - increasing demand
• Net effect on visa bulletin: uncertain, being monitored

Full breakdown: One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2026 - Immigration Impact Guide.

Chart A vs Chart B - will Chart B return?

• Chart A (Final Action Dates) has been used since May 2026
• August prediction: Chart A only continues
• Chart B (Dates for Filing) unlikely to reopen before October 2026 (FY2027 start)
• If you filed I-485 under Chart B in April, your case is safe and continues processing

75-country freeze - still the hidden variable

The 75-country visa processing freeze continues through August with no signs of lifting. If it lifts before September 30, the resulting demand surge could force retrogression across multiple categories. The freeze is the single biggest variable in FY2026 visa bulletin predictions.

Detailed analysis: US Visa Freeze - 75 Countries Affected (2026).

Family-sponsored predictions

• F-2A: likely remains Current (file NOW if eligible)
• F-1/F-2B/F-3/F-4: slow movement continues
• Chart B still available for family-sponsored category

What to do right now

• IF YOUR DATE IS CURRENT: file I-485 immediately - lock in FY2026 number
• IF EB-5 INDIA: file TODAY (retrogression imminent)
• IF WAITING: prepare documents (medical, police clearance, birth certificate), consider Canada/Germany
• IF FROM A FROZEN COUNTRY: file I-485 if you are in the US with a current date

Plan your alternatives: Green Card Calculator, Canada CRS Calculator, Germany Opportunity Card Calculator, Immigration Eligibility Checker.

Historical tracker - FY2026 EB-2 India

For the broader employment-based backlog picture: Green Card Backlog Report 2026. USCIS context: USCIS Processing Times 2026.