Where things stand - latest data recap
September arrives after a brutal FY2026 endgame. The June bulletin retrogressed EB-2 India 10.5 months and EB-1 India 3.5 months, and the State Department explicitly warned that further retrogressions or 'unavailable' status are possible for EB-1 India, EB-2 India, and EB-5 India before September 30. With only one month left, every State Department decision now has outsized impact.
June baseline (Final Action Dates):
| Category | India | China | ROW | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | Dec 15, 2022 | Apr 1, 2023 | Current | 🔴 Retrogressed |
| EB-2 | Sep 1, 2013 | Sep 1, 2021 | Current | 🔴 Retrogressed 10.5 mo |
| EB-3 P&SW | Dec 15, 2013 | Aug 1, 2021 | Jun 1, 2024 | 🟢 +1 mo (ahead of EB-2) |
| EB-5 Unreserved | May 1, 2022 | Sep 22, 2016 | Current | Retrogression risk |
| EB-5 Set-asides | Current | Current | Current | Safe |
Full chain: June 2026 (live), plain English, July, August.
September predictions - the FY2026 finale
September is historically the most unpredictable month. Two opposing scenarios are both plausible. Prepare for either.
SCENARIO A - 'Use it or lose it' (State Dept pushes dates forward):
- EB-2 India: could advance 1-6 months (surprise jump)
- EB-3 ROW: could go Current
- EB-1: could advance significantly
- Rationale: 75-country freeze reduced demand, surplus numbers, advance to avoid waste
SCENARIO B - 'Demand caught up' (retrogression):
- EB-5 India: UNAVAILABLE or retrogresses 12+ months
- EB-2/EB-3 India: remain frozen or retrogress slightly
- Rationale: April filing surge plus OBBBA pressure created delayed demand
What happens on October 1 - the FY2027 reset
- Fresh 140,000 EB visa numbers allocated
- Dates may advance significantly (new year, new supply)
- Chart B may reopen for employment-based
- Per-country cap resets (7% of total)
- EB-5 set-aside categories: fresh allocations
October is often the most favorable month for applicants. Detailed outlook: October 2026 Visa Bulletin - FY2027 Predictions.
EB-5 September - the critical month
- If retrogression hasn't happened by September, it WILL now
- State Dept warning has been in bulletins since April
- Set-asides remain Current (safe harbor)
- Last chance to file I-485 before potential unavailability
- EB-5 cases filed before September 30 keep their FY2026 priority date
End-of-year filing strategy
- File I-485 before Sep 30 if your date is current - lock in FY2026 number
- Even if approval comes in FY2027, the filing date matters
- Get EAD and Advance Parole benefits immediately upon filing
- If your date is not current: prepare documents for the October reset
75-country freeze - end-of-year implications
If the freeze remains in place through September, the surplus visa numbers it created become a key driver for advances. If it lifts in September, expect retrogression as pent-up demand floods the system. Background: US Visa Freeze - 75 Countries Affected (2026).
OBBBA fee impact - 4 months in
- I-485 fees up by ~$160+ (CPI-adjusted)
- Asylum annual fee now active (3 monthly cycles complete)
- I-94 fee on every entry
- Filing data shows mixed effects: some applicants delay, others rush
Comprehensive breakdown: One Big Beautiful Bill Act 2026.
Family-sponsored predictions
- F-2A: should remain Current
- F-1/F-2B/F-3/F-4: end-of-year movement, mostly modest
- Chart B remains available for family-sponsored
What to do right now
- File I-485 if your date is current under Chart A
- EB-5 India: file TODAY if priority date is current - last chance before potential 'U'
- Prepare medical exam (I-693), police clearance, birth certificate for October opportunity
- Monitor USCIS announcement on Chart A vs B for October (typically late September)
- Evaluate alternatives: Canada Express Entry, Germany Blue Card, Australia Skilled Independent
Tools: Green Card Calculator, CRS Calculator, Germany Opportunity Card, Eligibility Checker. Reading: Canada H-1B Pathway, Best Countries to Work Abroad.
Historical tracker - FY2026 EB-2 India
| Month | EB-2 India | Movement | Chart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | Jun 1, 2013 | — | B |
| Nov 2025 | Jul 1, 2013 | +30 days | B |
| Dec 2025 | Jul 1, 2014 | +365 days | B |
| Jan 2026 | Jul 15, 2014 | +14 days | B |
| Feb-Apr 2026 | Jul 15, 2014 | 0 (frozen) | B |
| May 2026 | Jul 15, 2014 | 0 | A |
| Jun 2026 | TBD | — | TBD |
| Jul 2026 | TBD | — | TBD |
| Aug 2026 | TBD | — | TBD |
| Sep 2026 | TBD | — | TBD |
For broader backlog context: Green Card Backlog Report 2026 and USCIS Processing Times 2026.
Sık sorulan sorular
When is the September 2026 Visa Bulletin released?
Typically mid-August 2026.
Why is September the most important visa bulletin?
It is the last month of FY2026. All unused visa numbers expire September 30 and do not carry over. The State Department may advance or retrogress dates dramatically.
What happens on October 1, 2026?
FY2027 begins with fresh annual limits of 140,000 employment-based green cards. Dates often advance. Chart B may reopen.
Should I file I-485 before September 30?
If your priority date is current, yes. Filing before September 30 locks in FY2026 visa number availability. Even if processing extends into FY2027, the filing date matters.
Will EB-5 India be unavailable in September?
Very likely. The State Department has warned since April. If you have a current EB-5 priority date, file I-485 immediately.
Will dates advance or retrogress in September?
Both are possible. The State Department may advance dates to use surplus numbers (especially if the 75-country freeze continues) or retrogress if demand exceeds supply.
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