July 2026 Visa Bulletin - Predictions and What to Expect

Where things stand - June 2026 recap

The June 2026 bulletin was the worst single-month retrogression for Indian professionals in years. EB-2 India fell 10.5 months, EB-1 India fell 3.5 months, and EB-3 India advanced 1 month - leaving EB-3 India 3.5 months ahead of EB-2 India for the first time in recent memory. Chart A remains the only chart available for employment-based filings.

June baseline (Final Action Dates):

For the full June 2026 analysis with every table and the historical EB-2 India tracker, see our June 2026 Visa Bulletin report. For the plain-English breakdown, see what June means for your green card.

What the June bulletin revealed

The June 2026 bulletin retrogressed EB-2 India 10.5 months (Jul 15, 2014 → Sep 1, 2013), retrogressed EB-1 India 3.5 months (Apr 1, 2023 → Dec 15, 2022), and advanced EB-3 India 1 month (Nov 15, 2013 → Dec 15, 2013). EB-3 China advanced ~6 weeks to Aug 1, 2021. ROW and Mexico/Philippines saw no movement. The State Department warned that further retrogressions or categories becoming 'unavailable' may happen before September 30.

See our June 2026 predictions for the full analysis we published before release.

July predictions - employment-based

Category-by-category analysis based on May data and FY2026 trends.

EB-1 (India and China at Apr 2023): minimal movement expected, 0-2 months advance. Demand remains high from both countries against a limited annual allocation. EB-1A self-petitions are increasing as a workaround.

EB-2 India (Jul 15, 2014): possible small advance of 2-4 weeks. The category has been frozen since January, and the State Department may release some dates to use remaining FY2026 numbers before Sep 30. The 75-country freeze has reduced consular demand, lowering pressure to advance. Could remain frozen if domestic USCIS filing demand is sufficient. Wild card: if the freeze lifts, sudden demand spike triggers retrogression.

EB-2 China (Sep 2021): small advance of 1-3 months likely. China demand is lower than India and forward movement is more achievable.

EB-3 India (Nov 15, 2013): same dynamics as EB-2 India - possible 2-4 week advance. The gap between EB-2 and EB-3 India sits at 8 months.

EB-3 ROW (Jun 1, 2024): may advance 1-3 months toward Current. Reduced consular demand from the 75-country freeze benefits ROW filers.

EB-5 Unreserved India (May 1, 2022): HIGH risk of retrogression or unavailability. The State Department has warned in two consecutive bulletins. EB-5 China (Sep 22, 2016): modest advance likely (+2-4 weeks). Set-asides (Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure) remain Current.

EB-5 retrogression deep dive

EB-5 is the most critical story for July. The State Department's Section E warning has now appeared in both the April and May bulletins, signaling that retrogression is not theoretical - it is being actively considered.

• Why it matters: EB-5 India unreserved demand is surging
• If retrogression happens: new I-526E filers cannot file I-485 concurrently
• Set-aside categories (Rural, High Unemployment, Infrastructure) remain Current and provide a strategic alternative
• Estimated cutoff if retrogression triggers: dates could fall 6-18 months back
• Strategy: file I-485 NOW if your priority date is near or before May 2022
• For new investments: consider set-aside categories to avoid the unreserved queue

Background context: the Green Card Backlog Report 2026 covers the structural causes of these waits.

Chart A vs Chart B - will Chart B return

May was the first month using Chart A only for employment-based in over six months. June is likely to continue Chart A only as the State Department absorbs the surge from earlier months.

• July prediction: Chart A only continues through FY2026
• Chart B may reopen in October 2026 (start of FY2027)
• EB-2 India: Chart A Jul 2014 vs Chart B Jan 2015 (6-month gap)
• EB-3 India: Chart A Nov 2013 vs Chart B Jan 2015 (14-month gap)
• If you filed I-485 in April under Chart B, your case is safe and pending

75-country freeze - the ongoing variable

The Trump administration's 75-country immigrant visa processing freeze continues through July with no signs of lifting. Reduced consular processing means fewer visa numbers are being used, which is why ROW dates advanced dramatically in March-April.

• If the freeze lifts before Sep 30: immediate surge in demand triggers retrogression
• If the freeze continues: non-affected countries continue benefiting
• State Department warning: retrogression may be necessary if demand increases or administration actions are amended

Full analysis: The Great Visa Freeze Report 2026.

Family-sponsored predictions

• F-2A: expected to remain Current - rare and a strong opportunity for spouses of LPRs
• F-1: modest advances likely (5-7 months for ROW)
• F-2B, F-3, F-4: slow movement with Mexico and Philippines heavily backlogged
• Chart B remains available for family-sponsored (unlike employment-based)
• Key takeaway: F-2A Current for all countries is rare - if you qualify, file immediately before potential retrogression in FY2027

FY2026 endgame - what to expect August-September

Fiscal year 2026 ends September 30, 2026. Unused visa numbers do NOT carry over to FY2027 - they expire.

• State Department typically pushes dates forward in August-September to use numbers
• BUT: the 75-country freeze is already creating surplus, lowering urgency to advance
• EB-5 retrogression most likely in August or September
• Chart A will almost certainly continue through September
• October 2026 (FY2027 start): dates may reset, Chart B may reopen, 140,000 new EB numbers available
• New fiscal year = new opportunities for all categories

The next few months are decisive. See USCIS Processing Times 2026 for adjustment-of-status timing. Or estimate your priority date wait with our Green Card Calculator.

What to do right now

Action items by situation:

IF YOUR EB DATE IS CURRENT UNDER CHART A:

• File I-485 immediately - don't wait for 'better' dates
• Concurrent EAD (I-765) and Advance Parole (I-131)
• Get medical exam (I-693) ahead of filing
• Lock in benefits regardless of future retrogression

IF YOU ARE EB-5 INDIA:

• File I-485 TODAY if priority date is near May 2022
• Retrogression warning is explicit and repeated
• Consider set-aside categories for new investments

IF YOU ARE WAITING FOR EB-2/EB-3 INDIA:

• No action needed - dates unlikely to move beyond Jul 2014 / Nov 2013
• Prepare documents for future filing window
• Consider Canada Express Entry as parallel path (6-month PR). Run our CRS calculator
• Consider Germany Opportunity Card (no job offer needed). Run our Opportunity Card calculator
• Read: Canada H-1B fast-track pathway

IF YOU ARE FROM A FROZEN COUNTRY:

• File I-485 if in the US - adjustment is not affected by the freeze
• Explore alternative destinations: Best countries to work abroad 2026 and Easiest work visa countries 2026

IF YOU FILED IN APRIL UNDER CHART B:

• Your case is safe and pending
• EAD and AP will arrive while waiting
• Do NOT withdraw

IF F-2A IS RELEVANT:

• File immediately - F-2A Current is rare historically
• May not last into FY2027

Historical tracker - FY2026 EB-2 India

Full record of EB-2 India Final Action Date movement through FY2026.

The big December jump was followed by five months of zero movement. July may break the streak with a small advance, or extend it. Compare with our May 2026 bulletin analysis for the full FY2026 picture.